RA Efforts at ERCOT

Resource Adequacy Efforts at ERCOT
Any opinions voiced in the articles linked below are those of the article authors only, and not necessarily endorsed by Competitive Assets

• ERCOT to Release Capacity, Demand and Reserves Report Feb. 28
  Copyright 2014 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved
  On 2/18/14, ERCOT issued a press release, announcing that the new Capacity, Demand, and Reserves (CDR) report will be published on 2/28/14. This winter CDR, delayed from its usual Dec. 1 release date, will use a revised load-forecasting methodology (leading to new, preliminary results), in addition to modified generation data, an 8.7% value for the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) of wind, and separation of the coastal and non-coastal wind capacity. It will not, however, list a value for the target planning reserve margin (currently, 13.75%), and will make no changes to the wind ELCC (as originally proposed in the 2013 Loss of Load Study). In July 2013, the ERCOT Board delayed a decision on raising the reserve margin and ELCC; since then, the issue has been discussed at the PUCT, but no recommendations have been made. Moreover, Commissioner Andersonfiled a memo (2/5/14), in which he suggested that the Commission study what should be the appropriate reliability standard for ERCOT; this topic may be discussed at the 2/20/14 open meeting.
• ERCOT’s Revised Load Forecasting – Workshop II
  Copyright 2014 by Competitive Assets, LLC. All rights reserved
  The second load-forecasting workshop at ERCOT delved into the details of the proposed methodology, model validation, and reviewer’s recommendations. The stakeholders asked for additional information and some suggested changes to the forecast. To read more, please subscribe to Texas Electric Watch. If you are interested in purchasing this TEW issue, please click here. If you are interested in subscribing the Texas Electric Watch, please click here or call Competitive Assets at 512-581-0151.
• Jan 23, 2014: ERCOT Prepares for its 1/27/2014 Workshop on the CDR Load Forecast
  Copyright 2014 by Competitive Assets, LLC. All rights reserved
  ERCOT will hold a workshop on the Review of the Capacity, Demand, and Reserves (CDR) Load Forecast Methodology on 1/27/14, and has posted additional materials on the proposed load forecast. The workshop will discuss Itron’s Evaluation of ERCOT’s Forecasting Methodology, which includes recommendations to re-specify the Neural Network (NN) model to isolate the growth index and obtain a stable model; explore the use of a regression model to validate any advantage of a NN model over a traditional approach; and use the historic weather simulations to capture weather uncertainty. Also posted for this workshop are the Itron Premise Presentation and ERCOT’s Preliminary Load Forecast
• Jan 23, 2014: ERCOT Now Forecasts Slower Growth In Electricity Demand In Texas
• Jan 23, 2014: ERCOT Looking At Reducing Its Texas Power Demand Forecast
• Jan 23, 2014: New Forecast Gives Hope For Power Reserves In Texas
• Jan 23, 2014: Texas Grid Operator: Cold Snap Won’t Spark Another Power Emergency
• Jan 20, 2014: ERCOT: Demand Increased Only 1% in 2013
• Jan 17, 2014: ERCOT: Electricity use up 2.1 percent in 2013
• Jan 14, 2014: ERCOT Energy Usage Up In December And For All Of 2013
• Jan 14, 2014: Power Crisis Costs in ERCOT Haven’t Hit Home
• Jan 14, 2014: ERCOT Receives Notification of Suspension of Operations
• ERCOT Set a New Winter Demand Record
  Copyright 2014 by Competitive Assets, LLC. All rights reserved
  On 1/7/14, ERCOT issued a press release, noting a new winter demand record of 57,277MW during the hour ending at 8:00AM. The previous winter record was from 2/10/11, when demand reached 57,265MW.
• Jan 6, 2014: ERCOT: 2011 Lesson Helped Texas Avoid Rolling Blackout
• Jan 6, 2014: ERCOT Urges Texans To Conserve Power During Cold Snap 1/6/14
• Jan 6, 2014: Texas Grid Ends Power Alert; Extends Conservation Call
• Jan 6, 2014: Cold Weather Causes Surge In Demand On Texas’ Electric Grid
• Jan 6, 2014: Equipment failures leave thousands in Burleson in the dark; conservation alert in effect
• Jan 6, 2014: Texas Power Grid Manager Cancels Emergency Alert
• ERCOT Narrowly Avoided Blackout on 1/6/14
  Copyright 2014 by Competitive Assets, LLC. All rights reserved
  On the morning of 1/6/14, ERCOT called an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA), bringing all available generation online and deploying all load resources under contract, including for the Emergency Response Service (ERS). Because of unusually cold weather, the morning peak demand reached 55,487MW (8:00AM), while available reserves were impacted by the tripping of two units in North Central Texas, totaling about 3,700MW. The units experienced problems with their instrumentation, according to ERCOT staff. At the same time, about 9,300MW were offline because of planned outages, and available wind power was around 2,000MW. ERCOT also had to bring in about 800MW from the Eastern interconnect and 180MW from Mexico. The staff noted that energy prices went up to the cap in the morning.
  • By 9:18AM, ERCOT cancelled the alert notice, noting that conditions had returned to normal, and by mid-morning, the two units were also back in service. In the evening, the peak demand rose even higher, to 56,031MW (8:00PM)
  • For the morning of 1/7/14, ERCOT is now forecasting peak demand at 59,770MW, with the ISO issuing an additional advisory for generators and TDSPs. Based on public notices, here is the chronology of relevant notices:
    • 1/5/14 – 10:10AM, ERCOT      issues an “Advisory due to Hard Freeze,” through the early morning of      1/6/14;
    • 1/6/14 –
    • 6:47AM, ERCOT issues a “Watch for Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) below 2,500MW;”
    • 6:56AM, ERCOT issues EEA Level 1 (i.e., reserves below 2300MW);
    • 7:05AM, ERCOT moves to EEA Level 2 (i.e., reserves are below 1,750MW, with load resources deployed, a conservation appeal, and a possibility of rotating outages);
    • 7:51AM, ERCOT returns to EEA Level 1, after the system started to recover;
    • 9:18AM – ERCOT moves from EEA Level 1 to “Normal” conditions;
    • 9:57AM – the “Watch for PRC below 2,500MW” is cancelled.
• Dec 17, 2013: ERCOT Load-Forecast Methodology
  Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC. All rights reserved
  On 12/16/13, ERCOT staff held a workshop to review the newly proposed revisions to the load forecasting methodology. The same presentation was made to the ERCOT Board in December, after a November decision to postpone the release of the Capacity, Demand, and Reserves (CDR) report. The staff announced that ERCOT had just signed a contract with Itron to perform an independent review of the new methodology by mid-January, and that the CDR report is expected to be released in late January or early February. The latest issue of the Texas Electric Watch captures the discussion at the workshop, in addition to the summary of the original and revised methodologies and resulting decreases in load growth. To read more,, please subscribe to Texas Electric Watch. If you are interested in purchasing this TEW issue, please click here. If you are interested in subscribing the Texas Electric Watch, please click here or call Competitive Assets at 512-581-0151.
• Dec 12, 2013: Noting “Major” Software Projects to Start in 2014, ERCOT Reports Full Co-optimization Would Take Over Three Years to Implement
• Dec 4, 2013 ERCOT Proceeds to Re-evaluate its Newly Revised Load-forecasting Methodology Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC. All rights reservedAt the 12/3/13 meeting of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), ERCOT staff described the process to re-evaluate the newly revised load-forecasting methodology. The first step will be a detailed presentation at the 12/10/13 ERCOT Board meeting; next, a workshop has been scheduled for 12/16/13, to get market participant input; and third, there are plans to discuss related issues with the TDSPs at the 12/17/13 meeting of the Regional Planning Group (RPG). In addition, ERCOT is planning to hire an independent consultant to review the methodology and provide suggestions for improvement. The TAC Chair clarified that the purpose of all this is to get a better understanding of the methodology and thoroughly vet it, as it is a significant change. He added that any decision on the methodology has to be right, rather than quick. A staff presentation to the Board has been posted.
• Nov 21, 2013: Delay Of Texas Summer Reserve Report Could Be Months-Official
• Dec 2, 2013: ERCOT Files 4CP Report with PUCT
• Nov 27, 2013 ERCOT May Delay Its Capacity, Demand, and Reserves (CDR) Report by Two Months Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC. All rights reserved At the last ERCOT Board meeting, on 11/19/13, there was a discussion about the issuance of the next Capacity, Demand, and Reserves (CDR) report, planned for 12/1/13. The discussion and uncertainty about the load data led the Board Chair to recommend delaying the report, until after the next Board meeting, on 12/10/13. This would give members an opportunity to review the results of the revised load forecast and compare them to the previous methodology. A few days after that, Reuters reported on a statement by ERCOT’s CEO Trip Doggett that the CDR may be delayed by up to two months, because of the decision to let the revised load data go through the stakeholder review. Consequently, the just-issued agenda for the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) meeting on 12/3/13, features as one of the first items an update on the “Process for Finalizing the Load Forecast Methodology for the CDR Report.” It is not, however, shown as a voting item.
• Nov 20, 2013: Texas Grid Agency To Delay 2014 Reserve-Margin Report
• Nov 19, 2013: ERCOT Board of Directors Qualify TAS Energy’s Generation Storage as Energy Storage Resource Eligible for Wholesale Load Treatment
• Nov 13, 2013: ERCOT Panel Keeps Alive Proposal To Ban Intra-Day Offer Changes
• Nov 1, 2013: Texas Grid Operator Predicts Plenty Of Winter Power
• Nov 3, 2013: ERCOT Expects Sufficient Electricity This Winter and Next Spring
• ERCOT Reported Preliminary Results Of The Revised Loss-Of-Load Expectation (LOLE) Study Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved At the 11/7/13 meeting of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), ERCOT staff reported that preliminary results of the revised Loss-of-Load Expectation (LOLE) study point to a planning reserve margin of 14.7%, and the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) for wind of 13.9% (non-coastal) and 27.2% (coastal).  The study is being revised, based on ERCOT Board’s directive during its July meeting.  Before revisions, TAC – but not the Board – approved a planning reserve margin of 16.1% and wind ELCC of 14.2% (non-coastal) and 32.9% (coastal).
• ERCOT Files Back Cast Analysis Regarding Proposal In GDF Suez Energy’s Comments Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved On 10/18/13 ERCOT filed a Back Cast Analysis regarding a proposal made by GDF Suez Energy NA in their comments in PUCT Project No. 40000.  The Commission is scheduled to discuss the adoption of an Operating Reserve Demand Curve on November 15, 2013, and has requested comments from interested parties by November 4, 2013. The Commission requested the ERCOT Back Cast analysis before the November 4^th deadline so it could be evaluated by parties who plan to comment.The Back Cast reviews the impact of the Value of Lost Load at $18,000 and $25,000, using 3 scenarios.  The analysis found that the estimated additional Peaker Net Margin would have ranged in 2011 from $157,333/MW to $378,764/MW, and in 2012 from $27,173/MW to $78,509/MW.  Also reported are the Energy Weighted Average Price Adder P_S and the Energy Weighted Average Offline Reserve Price P_NS.
• ERCOT Publishes Reports Related to Implementation of ORDC Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved Starting last weekend, ERCOT has been publishing Indicative Real-Time Reserve ORDC (Operating Reserve Demand Curve) Price Adder: “This report captures the value of the opportunity costs of online reserves, based on the defined ORDC.  This will be an adder to the Real-Time Locational marginal Price (RT LMP), based on Nodal Protocol Revision Request NPRR568.  The ORDC is a curve that represents the value of reserves at different reserve levels, based on the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) at that reserve level and the Value of Lost Load (VOLL).  (The RT Reserve and Price Adder is calculated, based on the ERCOT Comments 101113 for NPRR568, plus the Online Wind Resource capacity in the online reserve calculation.  Any comments and changes made to the NPRR568 after the 10/11/13 ERCOT comments are not included in the current report.) As part of the information on the scarcity-pricing mechanism, ERCOT also publishes the Peaker Net Margin (i.e., the cumulative Peaker Net Margin in dollars per MW, since the start of the annual resource adequacy cycle, posted daily) and the System-Wide Offer Cap (i.e., the cap in place for Ancillary Services and Energy, posted for the last thirty days, on a daily basis).
• ERCOT PRS Approves NPRR on ORDC Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved On 10/18/13, the Protocol Revision Subcommittee (PRS) approved an extensively amended Nodal Protocol Revision Request NPRR568 (Real-Time Reserve Price Adder Based on Operating Reserve Demand Curve (ORDC)).  The amendments include  Morgan Stanley Comments 100813 (without the reference to load), ERCOT Comments 101113, and Luminant Comments 101613.  Also added were PRS revisions, based on informal comments submitted by Citi.  Moreover, a couple of issues were assigned to a subcommittee and working groups:
  • – The issue of Load Resources providing OFF10/30 [minutes] to the Wholesale Market Subcommittee and Demand Side Working Group (WMS/DSWG);
  • – A review of verification of Real-Time Production Potential to WMS and QSE Managers Working Group (QMWG).

  The next step for ERCOT staff is to develop an Impact Analysis on the approved revisions. NPRR568 will be considered next at the 11/7/13 meeting of the Technical Advisory Committee; its rank and priority was set at 2013/70. Also on 10/18/13,  ERCOT staff announced that: ” ERCOT published the Indicative Real-Time Reserve Price Adder on ercot.com for Operating Day (OD) 10/17/2013.  The posted price is calculated, based on the 10/11/13 ERCOT comments for NPRR568, and include the Online Wind Resource capacity in the Online reserve calculation.  Any comments and changes made to the NPRR568 other than the 10/11/2013 comments are not included in the currently posted prices.  The posting is a zip file that can contain multiple csv files; each csv file contains the price adder for all the Security Constrained Economic Dispatch (SCED) runs in each operating day.  The prices are posted under Scarcity Pricing Mechanism section (http://www.ercot.com/mktinfo/rtm/).

• Oct 18, 2013: ERCOT Overhauling Power Forecasting Methods For Texas
• Oct 21, 2013: GDF SUEZ Proposes Increasing ERCOT Value of Lost Load to $25,000 due to Use of Cumulative Distribution Function in Operating Reserves Demand Curve
• Oct 17, 2013: ERCOT Considers Implementing Real-Time Reserve Price Adder Based on Operating Reserve Demand Curve Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved On 10/17/13, ERCOT’s Protocol Revision Subcommittee (PRS) will consider Nodal Protocol Revision Request NPRR568 (Real-Time Reserve Price Adder Based on Operating Reserve Demand Curve (ORDC)).  Last week, ERCOT staff filed updates to the NPRR and a revised procedure, after several rounds of stakeholder discussions.  The updates incorporate consensus items for the summer 2014 implementation and beyond, in addition to listing unresolved items.  Also before the meeting, several market participants filed additional comments that may be discussed at PRS.  The NPRR, which is estimated to cost between $150-$250K to implement, with a four-to-six month timeline, is expected to be considered by the ERCOT Board in November.
• ERCOT Staff Presented Changes to its Load Forecast Process Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved At the 10/7/13 Generation Adequacy Task Force (GATF) meeting, ERCOT staff presented revisions to the load-forecasting process, which are leading to lower-forecast values.  One significant change has been to stop using the Moody’s economic-growth model, since it has consistently proven too optimistic (or, “a bubble,” according to staff).  The result of the changes, including how solar, hydro, and wind are counted, is that the planning reserve margin for 2014 has risen to 16.7% (not yet adjusted for the Effective Load Carrying Capability of wind).  The same presentation will be discussed at the 10/8/13 PUCT workshop and the ERCOT Board in November. 
• ERCOT Considers Changes to its Load Forecast Methodology Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved On 10/7/13, the Generation Adequacy Task Force (GATF) is meeting to review:
  1. the ERCOT Load Forecasting Methodology;
  2. a status report on the 2012 Loss-of-Load Expectation (LOLE) Study, based on revised load models; and 
  3. the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) of wind. 

  The changes for the load forecast methodology that staff are proposing include:

  • Daily energy forecasts would be based on Neural Network Models;
  • Forecasts would be based on many model simulations, instead of on a single, linear model;
  • Historical energy relationships would be based on premise counts by customer class (residential, commercial, and industrial); and
  • The determination of a 15-year normal forecast would now be based on model output, using the most recent 15 years of historical weather data.
• ERCOT’s Resource Adequacy Task Force Continues to Work on Implementing ORDC Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved The Resource Adequacy Task Force (RATF) met on 10/4/13, to discuss further details of the Operating Reserve Demand Curve (ORDC)  and the revised Nodal Protocol Revision Request 568NPRR ERCOT Comments (Real-Time Reserve Price Adder Based on ORDC).  The group sought consensus on remaining unresolved issues, and scheduled additional meetings for 10/9/13 and 10/11/13.  Also, comments in Project No. 40000, related to resource adequacy are due on 10/11/13. 
• Oct. 2, 2013:ERCOT Continues to Work on Implementing the Operating Reserve Demand Curve Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved The Resource Adequacy Task Force is meeting for the second time, on 10/4/13, to discuss the details of the Operating Reserve Demand Curve (ORDC) and Nodal Protocol Revision Request NPRR568 (Real-Time Reserve Price Adder Based on ORDC).  ERCOT staff posted new information for the meeting, noting that the back-cast tool has been updated,with data from 2013 through the end of  July.  In addition, the underlying data from 2011 and 2012, used in the back-cast for determining the mean and standard deviation for the seasonal ORDCs have also been posted at http://www.ercot.com/committees/board/tac/wms/ratf.
• Sept. 27, 2013:ERCOT Stakeholders Working on Implementing Real-Time Reserve Price Adder Based on Operating Reserve Demand Curve Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved On 9/19/13, the ERCOT staff filed Nodal Protocol Revision Request NPRR568 (Real-Time Reserve Price Adder Based on Operating Reserve Demand Curve (ORDC)), as requested by the PUCT at its 8/29/13 open meeting.  The NPRR was discussed by stakeholders for the first time at the 9/26/13 Resource Adequacy Task Force (RATF) meeting.  The participants reviewed NPRR568 in great detail and developed a list of “outstanding” issues that need to be addressed further (the list was emailed and may be posted later).  While consensus was reached on many of the issues under discussion, some remain to be resolved (e.g., Should the ORDC curve be changed every month).  Another meeting of RATF is planned for 10/4/13, to continue the debate and/or refine the list.  Parties who do not agree with the resolution of an issue may make a presentation at the 10/4/13 RATF meeting.  After that, the NPRR will be considered at the 10/17/13 meeting of the Protocol Revision Subcommittee (PRS).  Additional comments may be filed at ERCOT before the PRS meeting.  Under the preliminary Impact Analysis, the NPRR will cost $150K-$250K and take four-to-six months to implement.  
• Sept. 26, 2013: Potential Energy Efficiency Participation in ERCOT Market Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved Among the comments filed on 9/23/13, in Project No. 40000, related to resource adequacy, several noted the role of energy efficiency, in addition to revised building codes and appliance standards, in driving the growth of demand lower.  On 9/27/13, ERCOT’s Demand Side Working Group (DSWG) will be discussing a proposal/white paper on the “Potential for Energy Efficiency Participation in ERCOT Markets.”  The proposal is being made by the South-Central Partnership for Energy Efficiency as a Resource (SPEER).  The paper states, in part: “If a capacity market of any kind is created in Texas, efficiency should be allowed to bid directly against transmission upgrades and new and existing generation resources.  The capacity markets give us several years of experience to draw from.  A forward market should be adopted that allows sufficient time for generation, demand response, and passive efficiency investments to be put in place for the anticipated delivery year.  Passive efficiency measure capacity would be defined based on its reliable capacity reduction contribution throughout the hours of peak demand in the summer, and perhaps the winter seasons, and be paid accordingly.” At the same meeting, DSWG will be discussing Senate Bill 385 (83^rd Regular Session), which creates Chapter 399 of the Local Government Code, and authorizes municipalities and counties to provide a financial payment structure, enabling commercial, industrial, and multi-family (five or more dwelling units) property owners to improve their existing lots with energy or water efficient retrofits.”  In addition, the group will review a draft Nodal Protocol Revision Request, establishing rules for participation in the Emergency Response Service (ERS) by Loads, with demand response capabilities that are highly sensitive to weather conditions.
• Sept. 26, 2013: Reserve Margin Comments in Project No. 40000 Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved The latest issue of the Texas Electric Watch (TEW) provides a summary of all 24 comments filed in Project No. 40000 on the Commission’s questions related to setting the planning reserve margin (PRM) and reliability standard.  While a few parties offered suggestions on the PRM, most commenters expressed support for a capacity market, including renewable and Demand Response providers.  Find out also about the TIEC’s alternative to a capacity market. After the 9/23/13 filings in Project No. 40000, two additional filings were made by a Demand Response provider, supporting a capacity market in ERCOT, and by the Texas  Public Policy Foundation, which vehemently opposes such a market.  A Supplemental TEW offers a brief summary of the new comments. To read more, please subscribe to Texas Electric Watch. If you are interested in purchasing this TEW issue (including the supplemental issue), please click here. If you are interested in subscribing the Texas Electric Watch, please click here or call Competitive Assets at 512-581-0151. 
• Sept. 24, 2013:More Comments filed in Project No. 40000 Related to ERCOT Resource Adequacy Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved On 9/23/13, a number of parties filed comments in Project No. 40000, related to resource adequacy.  The filings came in response to questions the Commission posed at the 8/29/13 open meeting, and which focused on the planning-reserve margin and potential improvements to load forecasting.  While many commenters expressed support for a capacity market, a few noted that demand response, energy efficiency, passive-load response, renewables, revised building codes, and distributed generation are all affecting demand.  For example, HEB stated that it has reduced demand at its stores by 11% in the last few years, and its newest store in Austin is designed to be 50% more efficient than the most efficient current facility.  This and other, similar developments could explain why the traditionally direct correlation between the economic and load growths seems to be diminishing.  These issues will be further explored at the 10/8/13 PUCT workshop.
• Sept. 20, 2013:ERCOT Proposes Protocol Revisions For ORDC B+ Implementation Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved On 9/19/13, ERCOT filed Nodal Protocol Revision Request NPRR568 (Real-Time (RT) Reserve Price Adder Based on Operating Reserve Demand Curve (ORDC)), including a preliminary Impact Analysis (IA) and Methodology for Implementing ORDC (a similar filing was made in P.U.C. Project No. 40000 – Proposed Protocol Revisions for ORDC/B+ Implementation). The NPRR requires ERCOT to implement an ORDC in the Real-Time Market (RTM) to determine the RT price adder for RT Settlement Point Prices (RTSPPs).  The RT price adder reflects the price for reserves available in the ERCOT System, based on the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) at that reserve level.  The addition of this price adder to the RTSPP ensures that the RTSPP reflects the opportunity cost of reserve scarcity.  A new Other Binding Document (OBD) describes the methodologies for developing the ORDC and determining the reserve price adder, using the ORDC. In addition to various revisions, the 62-page NPRR creates a new Protocol Sec. 6.7.4, RT Ancillary Service (AS) Imbalance Payment or Charge.  The filing explains that in the absence of RT Co-optimization, an AS imbalance settlement will be performed “to ensure that Resources are indifferent between providing energy and reserves in RT.”  Moreover, “Reliability Unit Commitment (RUC) Resources and Reliability Must-Run (RMR) Units are removed from this AS imbalance payment for their online capacity in RT, since making the payment and clawing it back would result in the same financial outcome, but with significant changes to the Protocols.” The IA estimates the cost of implementing the NPRR at $150K-$250K, with a four-to-six-month timeline.  The ORDC was first proposed in November 2012, and has been extensively discussed since then, both at the PUCT and ERCOT.  On 9/26/13, the Resource Adequacy Task Force at ERCOT will discuss the newly-filed NPRR.
• Sept. 18, 2013:ERCOT Starts Assessing Drought Impacts on Generating Plants Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved At the 9/17/13 ERCOT Board meeting, the ERCOT CEO reported that this year’s milder weather has caused the organization to collect $2.6 million less in system administration fee than was expected.  Drought conditions, however, persist around the state, with 88% of Texas in moderate, or worse, drought.  ERCOT is now working with a consultant to develop a long-term drought impact analysis and a model that will be used to assign levels of risk for individual generating plants going forward.
• Sept. 24, 2013: ERCOT Board Brings Demand Response To The Real-Time Electric Market
• ERCOT Proposes Protocol Revisions For ORDC B+ Implementation Copyright 2013 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved On 9/19/13, ERCOT filed Nodal Protocol Revision Request NPRR568 (Real-Time (RT) Reserve Price Adder Based on Operating Reserve Demand Curve (ORDC)), including a preliminary Impact Analysis (IA) and Methodology for Implementing ORDC (a similar filing was made in P.U.C. Project No. 40000 – Proposed Protocol Revisions for ORDC/B+ Implementation). The NPRR requires ERCOT to implement an ORDC in the Real-Time Market (RTM) to determine the RT price adder for RT Settlement Point Prices (RTSPPs).  The RT price adder reflects the price for reserves available in the ERCOT System, based on the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) at that reserve level.  The addition of this price adder to the RTSPP ensures that the RTSPP reflects the opportunity cost of reserve scarcity.  A new Other Binding Document (OBD) describes the methodologies for developing the ORDC and determining the reserve price adder, using the ORDC. In addition to various revisions, the 62-page NPRR creates a new Protocol Sec. 6.7.4, RT Ancillary Service (AS) Imbalance Payment or Charge.  The filing explains that in the absence of RT Co-optimization, an AS imbalance settlement will be performed “to ensure that Resources are indifferent between providing energy and reserves in RT.”  Moreover, “Reliability Unit Commitment (RUC) Resources and Reliability Must-Run (RMR) Units are removed from this AS imbalance payment for their online capacity in RT, since making the payment and clawing it back would result in the same financial outcome, but with significant changes to the Protocols.” The IA estimates the cost of implementing the NPRR at $150K-$250K, with a four-to-six-month timeline.  The ORDC was first proposed in November 2012, and has been extensively discussed since then, both at the PUCT and ERCOT.  On 9/26/13, the Resource Adequacy Task Force at ERCOT will discuss the newly-filed NPRR.
•  Sept.19, 2013: ERCOT Proposes Protocol Revisions For ORDC B+ Implementation
• Sept. 5, 2013: ERCOT Impact Assessment Of Real-Time Energy & Ancillary Services Co-Optimization
• July 17, 2013: ERCOT Board Takes Pass on Increasing Texas Power Reserve Margin
• July 16, 2013: Sen. Troy Fraser Letter to ERCOT Board 7/15/13
• July 16, 2013: Chairman Craven Crowell letter to Sen. Troy Fraser 7/16/13
• July 16, 2013: ERCOT Postpones Vote on Electricity Reserves Target
• July 16, 2013: ERCOT Won’t Institute “Self-Serving” Changes to the Texas Electricity Market Yet
• July 16, 2013: ERCOT Board Defers Decision on Modifying Reserve Margin Target
• July 16, 2013: Power Reserve Margin Should Not Be Altered, Senator Says
• July 15, 2013: ERCOT Again Tackles Electricity Reserve Issue
• July 16, 2013: Texas Senate Chair Warns Inflated Reserve Margin Target Skews Debate in Favor of Capacity Market
• June 25, 2013: ERCOT Files Report on ORDC B+ Economic Equilibrium Planning Reserve Margin Estimates Prepared by the Brattle Group
• June 26, 2013: Brattle Report Indicates Operating Reserve Demand Curve in ERCOT Can Achieve Resource Adequacy
• June 25, 2013: ERCOT Files Report on ORDC B+ Economic Equilibrium Planning Reserve Margin Estimates Prepared by the Brattle Group
• June 26, 2013: Brattle Report Indicates Operating Reserve Demand Curve in ERCOT Can Achieve Resource Adequacy
• June 20, 2013: The 2012 State of the Market Report Finds Prices Too Low In ERCOT.  Please click here for the findings in this report.
• June 19, 2013: ERCOT filed the Value of Lost Load (VOLL) Study with PUCT On 6/18/13, ERCOT filed the Value of Lost Load (VOLL) study, as developed by London Economics (LEI).  It includes a review of studies from other areas and macroeconomic analysis of the value of outages in the ERCOT region.  The third part of the study (i.e., customer survey), which LEI deems necessary to achieve the requested result, could proceed with the Commission’s approval, after the 6/27/13 workshop.  Without the survey, states LEI, a single VOLL estimate cannot be provided.  At the 6/6/13 open meeting, ERCOT staff said that the survey could be completed by the end of this summer, although at a recent stakeholder meeting they mentioned that the initial survey methodology had to be revised.
• June 19, 2013: ERCOT Submits the Value of Lost Load Report
• June 7, 2013: ERCOT Set to Unveil Key Value of Lost Load Study in Next Few Weeks
• May 17, 2013: ERCOT staff on this day filed an Impact Analysis (IA) the proposed resource adequacy solution for the Operating Reserve Demand Curve (ORDC)/B+, as filed earlier this spring in PUC Project No. 40000 (related to resource adequacy). The cost of implementation is expected at $100k-$200k and the time is estimated at 6-8 months.
• May 17, 2013: ERCOT Provides Cost Estimate for Implementing B+ Operating Reserve Demand Curve Proposal
• May 12, 2013: ERCOT Will Raise Texas’ System Wide Offer Cap to $9,000 in 2015
• May 8, 2013: Texas Regulators Schedule Workshop on Generation Scarcity Pricing Proposal
• May 3, 2013: Operating Reserves Solution in Texas Could Add $70/MWh to Power Prices
• March 21, 2013: ERCOT Files Back-cast Showing Market Impact of Scarcity Pricing Interim Solution B+
• March 20, 2013: ERCOT filed Additional Analysis of the “Interim Solution B” Scarcity Pricing Proposal
• Feb 27, 2013: ERCOT Studying Alternative Solutions to Generation Adequacy Problem. ERCOT’s Technical Advisory Committee held a workshop on 2/20/13 to consider alternative solutions to the generation adequacy problem in ERCOT. This was also, in part, to prepare for the 3/14/13 PUCT workshop in Project Nos. 41060 and 41061, which was to address issues surrounding the calculation of the reserve margin and the need for increased Demand Response programs. (To read more on this report, subscribe to the Texas Electric Watch.)