Genscape Analyzes ERCOT’s Power Needs during Hot Weather

Genscape Analyzes ERCOT’s Power Needs during Hot Weather

June 22, 2017

by Margarita Fournier, Copyright 2016 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved

A recent report details the impacts the heat wave in the Texas region is having on demand, wind, generation, transmission, and pricing. On 6/20/17, Genscape published the report, titled ERCOT Week-Ahead Outlook, which attempts “to understand how strong demand and unplanned generation outages will impact the grid.” The report’s summarized projections state:

  • Demand: 14-Day Demand Forecast calls for weekly peak demand to reach 64.3GW on 6/20. A variable weather pattern increases volatility through next week. Load volleys between moderately-strong cooling demand and thunderstorm induced demand weakness. Above average soil moisture may limit daily high temperatures and weaken cooling demand, as high pressure builds across the footprint early next week;
  • Wind: Generation trends moderately weak through Wednesday, but is forecast to increase on Thursday in South Texas, as a tropical disturbance approaches the footprint;
  • Generation: Majority of generation should be supplied by CC [combined cycle] and Coal generation, with wind and nuclear playing a vital role, particularly in the off-peaks, and steam generation during the peak demand hours;
  • Transmission: Congestion outlook for the week of 6/19 is quieter than in previous weeks; however, risks remain present in Houston and South portions of the footprint; and
  • Pricing: Low marginal energy price volatility/strength expected; however, there is an expectation of bullish Houston Hub & LZ [load zone] pricing and bullish South LZ pricing.

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