EIA Expects Electricity Generation to Decline

EIA Expects Electricity Generation to Decline

June 14, 2017

by Margarita Fournier, Copyright 2016 by Competitive Assets, LLC.  All rights reserved

The data published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicate falling electricity generation. According to EIA’s Short-term Energy Outlook, the “generation from utility-scale plants was 11,150 gigawatthours per day in 2016. Warmer-than-normal temperatures in the first quarter of 2017 contributed to a 1.2% year-over-year decline in generation during that time. Forecast cooler summer temperatures compared with last year contribute to an expected 3.3% year-over-year decline in generation in the third quarter of 2017. Overall, forecast generation falls by 1.2% in 2017 and then grows by 1.6% in 2018.” The drop is certainly felt in ERCOT, where its CEO reported at the Board meeting that up-to-date revenues have fallen by $2.3 million compared to projections. The number may rise, however, by year-end. Additionally, Electric Light & Power quotes from the EIA report: “EIA also expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas to fall from an average of 34 percent in 2016 to less than 32 percent in both 2017 and 2018 as a result of higher expected natural gas prices. Coal’s forecast generation share rises from 30 percent in 2016 to 31 percent in 2017 and 2018. Non-hydropower renewables are forecast to provide 9 percent of electricity generation in 2017 and nearly 10 percent in 2018. The generation share of hydropower is forecast to be nearly 8 percent in 2017 and 7 percent in 2018. The nuclear share of generation remains just under 20 percent in both 2017 and 2018.”

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